Good Morning Everyone!
Credit Suisse, one of the world’s largest banks is in trouble. Stock trading at record low, credit default swaps at 2009 highs and CEO says bank is at a “critical moment”. Buckle up another bumpy week ahead!
Prices as of 4 pm EST, 9/30/22; % YTD
MARKET UPDATE
U.S. stocks heading for their worst performance since the 2009 financial crisis
TSX holding up much better
Investors are asking: Are rates and the U.S. dollar peaking?
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Investors waiting for the sell side to cut their 2nd half 2022 and 2023 estimates
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New year-to-date lows to start Q4
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Investors positioned defensively: Low cash levels and low hedge fund leverage
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The bond market is calmer to start Q4, which should help equities stabilize
HOPE
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Seasonality is reason for HOPE
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Mid-term Q4 quarters tend to have good returns historically in this time period
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The S&P 500 is 10% below its 63-day moving average. It’s only crossed that threshold 4 times in the past 10 years.
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Stocks and Bonds have never BOTH been down year-over-year in 3 consecutive quarters – EVER
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Perhaps, earnings season will turn the market around
10yr 3.7%’
US$ 112 up 14% in 2022, FX will squeeze U.S. earnings
C$ 72.8
VIX 31
Crude $84 +5%
Earnings
CRYPTO UPDATE
Solana SOL/USD suffers 4th major outage
Former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky: confirmed scumbag
Digital asset flows (into popular crypto ETPs, mutual funds, and OTC trusts) last week
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Third consecutive week of (low) inflows
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Bitcoin (3-week streak) and Ethereum (2-week streak) led
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Broad outflows in altcoins
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